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The article (see also below)
by the economist Paulos, which also appeared in
another form at ABC on the web, ties together Behe's black box
and mousetrap argument (which requires another web page), and
the self-organization question of modern market economy, in
the process expressing the peculiar ideological affinity of
Darwinism and classical liberalism. This article is a
veritable thicket of interesting fallacies, propagandas,
tidbits of science, and poses the very good question of what
conservative liberals and conservative proponents of
intelligent design are up to in the current Darwin debate. Who
knows what they are up to? By agreeing to disagree they can
perhaps forge an alliance of incompatible conservatives
allergic to each other and thus win elections. We are back
trying to figure out, What's the matter with Kansas? But
the question of evolution and economic systems remains.
Students of the eonic effect will be
familiar with the phrase 'econo-sequence
!= eonic sequence',
which means that the evolution of cultural systems and
economic systems are distinct things, sometimes the one
embedded in the other, requiring a special apparatus of
theory to keep track of the separate effects.
The resemblance of of Darwin's theory to classical
political economy has often been noted, Marx
one of the first, and pointing to the connection is
often seen as a discovery, but, like a case of cribbed notes,
it's a small world, and the connection merely shows the
influences on Darwin of the economic ideology of his time, as
it enters unconsciously into the formulation of theory.
Thus S. J. Gould
in The Structure of
Evolutionary
Theory states the unwitting
confusion with especial clarity, “I would advance the even stronger claim that
the theory of natural selection is, in essence, Adam Smith’s economics transferred to nature”.
[For reference and comment cf.
Critique of Evolutionary Economy]
This connection, or the belief in it, has gone on so long
we forget how (we suspect) it arose, and fail to consider that
the application of economic or Malthusian reasoning to
evolution is not theory, but a substitute for theory in a
context where evolution is improperly observed. We can deduce
the fact of evolution, long before we deduce the nature of the
mechanism(s), and natural selection requires far greater
observation than we can provide at this point. Cf.
The
Hurricane Argument
Darwin's reading of Malthus is well known. Less familiar is
the ideological debate over Malthus,
now seen as the demographer, who, we forget, wrote in the
context of the French Revolution at the moment when the Terror
was driving conservatives to ideological counterattack,
debating Godwin and others for a generation, as the idea of
evolution or, in the language of the times, transformism,
suffered its period of eclipse until Darwin, matching the idea
to classical political economy, ensured its resurrection and
eventual success. So, to place Malthus at the source of theory
had a set of echoes and innuendoes now lost on us. The point
is clear enough in Herbert Spencer, whose 'theories' of
cultural and biological evolution scrambled together were
instantly pressed into the service of social class arguments,
in the generations after the Reform Bill, etc...
The question is, just what is a theory of evolution, and
how did natural selection get the booby prize for Big
Breakthrough? We have been transfixed by this Darwinian ploy,
and the fact is we don't know. Anyone who tries to produce a
theory is suspicious of what Darwin did, for it is the
'scrounging for a mechanism' that defines the game, and that
process produced the 'theory', 'my theory' in Darwin's gollum-like
mutterings, with hints from classical economics and Malthus.
This point is impossible to grasp if you think Darwin actually
did produce a theory of evolution.
If you had never observed true evolutionary mechanisms in
action on the proper scale, and you were a naturalist living
in the wake of Malthus and Adam Smith (and were a Whiggishly
inclined 'brit' of the nineteenth century upper classes), and
if as a naturalist you traveled to farflung jungle scenes to
observe teemingly savage competitive habitats with their
distributed spectrum of closely related species and if you
were aware of the rising tide of facts suggesting 'transformism'
(not yet called evolution, and dangerously associated with the
radicalism of the French Revolution) and if you wanted to make
a name for yourself it might suddenly strike you like a ton of
bricks that the solution to all these problems was to propose
a conservatized Malthusian theory of natural selection, which
is not at all like the dreaded radical version, and not
unlike the teemingly savage competitive habitat of the
Whiggishly inclined in nineteenth century England. Which is
not to exclude Tories.
But, unfortunately, we may ask, how does it follow? We have
never seen the crux of evolution, why should it follow
economic situations? Not all bon idees are science, and
some are due to ideological suggestibility and fall by the
wayside once the ideological connection or other limits of the
idea are seen. But if it is a question of ideology, then the
moment of truth may never arrive and, none the wiser, a subtle
fallacy will persist because--well, the ruling ideas of the
epoch are those of the bourgeoisie, another term for the
Whiggishly inclined. Since noone has observed evolution at
close range at the proper scale to detect the mechanism, noone
can conclusively refute the idea.
So the connection of evolution to economic dynamics is
simply not established. It is interesting that Paulos brings
in the connection to intelligent design. The idea is that
design is not required for economies, and therefore is not
required to explain complex biochemical structures. But wait a
minute here.
Economies ARE designed, even those designed to be free
market systems. Pass a law in Parliament, and free trade
creates one economy, pass another, and the initial conditions
for a revised economy are set. Which one is the correct
analog? And how does Parliament figure into the
Paleolithic?
In general, the evolution INSIDE one type of economy is not
the same evolution that we see in the evolution BETWEEN
economic systems. The transition between economic
systems is a very difficult question. It depends on the timely
appearance of the right social institutions. And these just
don't appear for economic reasons. One factor is the issue of
law, and international law. To what are we referring? The
conduct of economy according to law, or the scofflaw process
of anything goes? If you say anything goes, then explain why
capitalist systems with slavery and capitalist systems without
are different, and whether you are indifferent to this factor,
in the name of economic self-interest. The contradictions
mount, and soon the 'evolution of freedom' behind abolition
becomes an issue. Note that Adam Smith was very sensitive to
such issues.
The modern capitalist system arose, to make a long
story short, quite suddenly in the wake of the Industrial
Revolution, and the suggestion of figures such as that
designer Adam Smith that mercantilist control of economies was
counterproductive. Fine, but the result then is to design
systems with less control, but still with some control.
As that counterdesinger Marx pointed out, control of the
economy had a concealed class basis, the Whiggishly inclined
again, in the background, and theories were forms of
legitimation to deflect attention from that fact. It is more than arguable, as noted, that capitalist economies
of some kind existed before this, or always existed, but the
point is the same. In general the evolution of social systems
goes by one process, economies by another, voiding the analog
to biological evolution. Ancient systems of economy in
many cases were capitalisms manque, because they were
too uncontrolled, or lacked the social instruments, to get
underway.
Furthermore, the functioning of capitalist economies is
carried out, not by a random mixture of unthinking molecules,
but by intelligent economic agents, who are connected by
information networks over geographical space. These factors
are not allowed to be present in biological evolution of the
Darwinian variety.
To say, therefore, that what appears to be the
'self-organization' of economies can be analogous to the
construction of complex biochemical machines simply doesn't
follow.
The final issue is, of course, the powerful suggestion that
leftist critiques of a socialist or anti-market variety are all
wrong since Nature in the two supposed instances, complex
structure in biochemical systems, and market economies,
provides the substitute. We can see that this doesn't follow
either. We can agree that attempts to control markets can
wreck capitalist economies, or not generate wealth, or that
Bolshevik planning was a disaster, but the fact is that
control of markets is present in capitalist systems to a large
degree, in their social systems of law, regulation, and the
like. These are not the result of 'spontaneous order'. And
this seems to imply that planning is somehow banished from
thought. But the factor of planning is always a player in
multiple forms of discourse, it being merely the case that
planning very large economies has historically failed by
comparison with the less planned capitalist
variety. One might note in passing that the American economy
changed gears in a week when confronted with the survival of
the fittest episode called the Second World War as it produced
something closer to a planned economy. It couldn't have been
the desire for less efficiency. So competition inside
an economy changed gears when the question came of putting an
economy on a war footing in the struggle between
economic and cultural systems.
The issue of Behe's mousetrap is a tricky one, and needs
another discussion. We have clear evidence of economic
designers, but no candidate for a 'designer' in this instance!
The point is merely that natural selection fails here as an
argument. If that's the case, then we need to go back to
square one and devise a theory of evolution, post Darwin. Most
of all we need to have the facts of how it actually did
happen! Everyone forgets this point in the design debate. It
is not a question of theoretical assumptions, but of empirical
facts, facts we don't have.
In part, the problem is the punning over the word 'design'.
There should be two or more terms, one of them 'natural
design', i.e. some unknown factor that integrates complex
biochemical systems. Almost by definition, complex biological
systems show de facto 'design' because they perform
teleological operations like computer programs that have a
start and finish point. How these programs function
(teleologically) is one question, how they evolved is unknown,
and it doesn't follow that that too must be teleological, since
we haven't really observed the steps, so everything is up in
the air.
In general, the failure of natural selection does not
exhaust the possibilities of naturalistic explanation.
In any case, to say that the perceptible efficiency of
certain types of market systems can explain the complexity of
biochemical structure, and of biochemical evolution, is simply
speculative extrapolation, and almost certainly false.
Go back to Darwin's Malthusian Aha! moment, and press the
reset button. We see teeming populations, the struggle of
life-form in natural environments. That day-to-day, minute-to-minute, competitive environment has not been shown to perform
the uphill work of evolution. So we default back to our
ignorance.
_______________________
The mousetrap
John Allen Paulos
Thursday September 8, 2005
Guardian
The theory of intelligent design, the purportedly more
scientific descendant of creation science, rejects Darwin's
theory of evolution as being unable to explain the complexity
of life. How, ask its supporters, can biological phenomena
such as the clotting of blood have arisen just by chance?
A key supporter likens the "irreducible complexity"
of such phenomena to the irreducible complexity of a
mousetrap. If one piece is missing - spring, metal platform or
board - it is useless. The implicit suggestion is that all the
parts of a mousetrap would have had to come into being at
once, an impossibility unless there were an intelligent
designer. Design proponents argue that what's true for the
mousetrap is all the more true for complex biological
phenomena. If any of the 20 or so proteins involved in blood
clotting is absent, clotting doesn't occur. So, the
creationist argument goes, these proteins must have all been
brought into being at once by a designer.
But the theory of evolution does explain the evolution of
complex biological organisms and phenomena, and the argument
from design, which dates from the 18th century, has been
decisively refuted. Rehashing the refutation is not my goal.
Those who reject evolution are usually immune to such
arguments.
Rather, my intention here is to develop some loose analogies
between these biological issues and related economic ones and
to show that these analogies point to a surprising crossing of
political lines. Let me begin by asking how it is that modern
free market economies are as complex as they are, boasting
amazingly elaborate production, distribution and communication
systems? Go into almost any drug store and you can find your
favourite candy bar. And what's true at the personal level is
true at the industrial level. Somehow there are enough ball
bearings and computer chips in just the right places in
factories all over the country. The physical infrastructure
and communication networks are also marvels of integrated
complexity. Fuel supplies are, by and large, where they're
needed. Email reaches you in Miami as well as in Milwaukee,
not to mention Barcelona and Bangkok.
The natural question, discussed first by Adam Smith and later
by Friedrich Hayek and Karl Popper among others, is who
designed this marvel of complexity? Which commissar decreed
the number of packets of dental floss for each retail outlet?
The answer, of course, is that no economic god designed this
system. It emerged and grew by itself. No one argues that all
the components of the candy bar distribution system must have
been put into place at once, or else there would be no
Snickers at the corner store.
So far, so good. What is more than a bit odd, however, is that
some of the most ardent opponents of Darwinian evolution - for
example, many fundamentalist Christians - are among the most
ardent supporters of the free market. They accept the market's
complexity without qualm, yet insist the complexity of
biological phenomena requires a designer.
They would reject the idea that there is or should be central
planning in the economy. They would point out that simple
economic exchanges which are beneficial to people become
entrenched and then gradually modified as they become part of
larger systems of exchange, while those that are not
beneficial die out. Yet some of these same people refuse to
believe natural selection and "blind processes" can
lead to biological order arising spontaneously.
There are, of course, quite significant differences and
disanalogies between biological systems and economic ones (one
being that biology is a much more substantive science than
economics), but these shouldn't blind us to their similarities
nor mask the obvious analogies.
These analogies prompt two final questions. What would you
think of someone who studied economic entities and their
interactions in a modern free market economy and insisted that
they were, despite a perfectly reasonable and empirically
supported Smithian account of their development, the
consequence of some all-powerful, detail-obsessed economic
law-giver? You might deem such a person a conspiracy theorist.
And what would you think of someone who studied biological
processes and organisms and insisted that they were, despite
an perfectly reasonable and empirically supported Darwinian
account of their development, the consequence of some
all-powerful, detail-obsessed biological law-giver?
· John Allen Paulos is a professor of mathematics at Temple
University, Philadelphia. www.math.temple.edu/paulos
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