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One of the most
persistent criticisms of the Neo-Darwinian synthesis lies in the statistical
challenge to the randomness of the emergent processes.
Darwinian evolution is most unlikely to get even
one polypeptide right, let alone the thousands on which living cells depend for
their survival. This situation is well-known to geneticists and yet nobody seems
prepared to blow the whistle on the theory. Evolution from Space,
F. Hoyle & C. Wickramasinghe
The literature is
hopelessly confusing here, because it tends to depend on prior assumptions.
Beware of quibbles that distract attention from the basic intent of the
critiques, which are surely confirmed now that we see that very complex
processes must be invoked that aren't random. The critics, with their own
mistakes, have won the argument, though noone really says so. The real issue
now seems the origin of the basic 'toolkit' and the body plans visible after
the Cambrian. One of the most
persistent arguments has been the implausibility of random change in DNA
molecules. Such arguments have been attacked repeatedly, but they won't go
away. The fossil record doesn't look uniform, nor does random tinkering with
genomes look promising. What's more, serious scientists don't go to Las
Vegas to get rich, except in Darwinian theory. One of the most notable
critiques of the past generation is that of Evolution from Space, by F. Hoyle and
Wickramasinghe, with their famous Boeing airplane argument. This argument
has been frantically 'refuted' so many times, I tend to yawn when
Darwinists speak on the subject. This is a challenge
to natural selection, not necessarily to naturalistic evolution, although Evolution
from Space tends to be attacked for the perhaps wrong spiritual
conclusion it draws from its hard-to-refute argument. Also
there is Michael Denton's Evolution: A Theory in Crisis, and more
recently on probability issues, Senapathy's Independent Birth of Organisms,
who finds the statistical arguments to be insuperable. Denton's original
book is constantly attacked and may be slightly out of date, but its basic
reasoning has not been shown to be wrong. Noting the way in which selectionism (originally proposed and rejected
earlier by Edward Blyth) triumphed, Hoyle and Wickramasinghe note:
- There was no general perception that the real
issue of controversy, as it had existed decades earlier between Blyth and Darwin, had
still to be resolved. The difficulty for the few who wished to come to grips with
the real question of whether random mutations and natural selection had been sufficient to
explain the origin of species, and by implication the origin of life, which Darwin
maintained but which Blyth did not, was that in the nineteenth century the theory was
impossible to quantify. Before modern microbiology, the evolutionist simply pointed to the
long time-scales of geology and there was then no way to demonstrate that it would need a
time-scale 10^40,000 times as long to produce the effects that were being
claimed. p.133
Again, P.
Senapathy, in Independent Birth of Organisms, in a
calculation of the probabilities of random changes in gene sequences claims
that
1. The genome of an organism is closed and locked
with respect to evolution. The variability of a creature is confined to the closed
framework of its genome.
2. Random mutational processes cannot lead to the
evolution of new genes and genetic networks needed for new organs and appendages.
Not even one gene!?
What to say of thousands. And the issue, as he notes, requires equal
independent parallel change in developmental processes of great
complexity.
The statistical unlikelihood of natural selection
has always haunted the Darwinian theory of evolution. The Genome is
one of the most elaborated systems of machines imaginable, with every
function clearly given a mechanical sequence, yet the crucial part, its
genesis, we are to believe, is purely random. Books by experts can
be disingenuous here, so it seems a lost cause to clarify the
issues.
This statistical
argument has been pointed out so many times that it is essential
to the history of the debate, in any case, along with the persisting difficulties in the fossil record,
notwithstanding many successes as to fossil gaps, but
overall it is difficult to
understand how the theory maintains its hold in such a flagrant
disregard of intuitively obvious problems.
The answer is that these attacks
endanger the whole game and are the
subject of as many counterattacks, none very convincing. A close
look shows the nature of the subject has simply moved on, tacilty
acknowledging the point, with its emphasis on new processes of development,
hox genes, etc...
These statistical arguments could be incorrect, but it is strange that
textbooks are virtually silent on the problem!
-
Thus, we have I.L.
Cohen, Darwin was Wrong (Greenvale, NY: New Research Publications, 1984), a
self-published 'howl of protest', now vanished, and a good treatment of gnomic
probabilities. Arguments using Natural Selection seem oblivious to what happens to the reciprocal
(one over.. as 1/2) of a large factorial (N!= N factorial= N x N-1 x N-2 x ...3 x 2 x 1).
I.L. Cohen, in Darwin was Wrong, illustrates the issue of the permutations and
combinations of the basic CGAT molecules in the DNA code. He indicates that as few as 84
items evenly divided into 21 each of C, G, A, T, (representing nucleotides) translates
into a probability of occurrence: 2.08 x 10 ^-51!! As Cohen notes,
mathematicians consider any probability beyond 10^-50 as automatically being zero.
Thus any strand of DNA having over 84 nucleotides is beyond the range of random
occurrence. Yet, for example, a mammalian cell is estimated to have about 3 billion
nucleotides in its DNA.
Most efforts to overcome these arguments, such as the claim
(cf. Richard Dawkins in The Blind Watchmaker) that a cumulative effect defeats
these odds, remain unconvincing, and unproven. Cf. R. Dawkins, Climbing Mount Improbable, p. 75.
Dawkins claims that
while variation is random, natural selection is non-random. But that is a
distraction, confusing the issue. selection remains 'random' in the sense
that no directional macroevolution is invoked.
Here, S. Kauffman, cf. At Home in the Universe,
chapter 2-3, starts with the theme of self-organization, after
acknowledging the problem. This is a new process, if
real, ceding the point about natural selection. This work can be
useful for its straightforward acknowledgement of the problem. Too many
books beat around the bush and waste your time.
The argument by statistics has a long history,
cf also the report of a symposium at Wistar
Institute and Murray Edens hard to obtain, "Inadequacies of Neo-Darwinian
Evolution as a Scientific Theory", which concludes, p. 109, "It is our
contention that if random is given a serious and crucial interpretation from a
probabilistic point of view, the randomness postulate is highly implausible and that an
adequate scientific theory must await the discovery and elucidation of new natural
laws," from Mathematical Challenges to the Neo-Darwinian Interpretation of
Evolution. Also discussed in David Berlinski's Black Mischief. Cf. also,
David Berlinski in Commentary magazine, June 1996, and follow up, September
1996.
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